Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
